EDIT: Holy cow we got really close! The ETH price on Jan 1st 2018 is $740.
So for the last couple days, the price development of Ethereum (ETH) has remained pretty constant. No significant dips, but also no upswings.
For the individual that just loves to track the ethereum price on an hourly basis (like me!), this can be really boring. And well, it was boring indeed… So I decided to carry out a small poll on Reddit in the /r/ethtrader community. The aim of it is to collectively predict the Ethereum price for Jan 1st 2018.
By the way, if you are an Ethereum investor, or are planning to invest, you definitely need to join this subreddit. At the time I write this post there’s already 36,174 of us, and the community keeps growing day by day. If you do not know anything about ethereum, check out our post regarding ETH.
How did I carry the collective ethereum price prediction out?
- After a couple seconds, the first comments started to pop up.
- One hour passed, and the post was on the front page with some upvotes and 30 comments or so.
- After just 5 hours, the post received over 4.9K impressions, 290 comments, and 85 upvotes. Nice.
After the craze was over, I started to recollect the data.
Although some Reddit users pointed out I should have used a polling website for this purpose, I decided to go for the good old excel sheet.
Of course, not all comments were serious ethereum price predictions.
After filtering out the clowns that make this community so enjoyable, but also statistically irrelevant, there were exactly 165 “high-quality” predictions by Ethereum investors from all over the world.
What were the results?
In order to obtain a result that is as statistically relevant as possible, I not only calculated the average, but also the median. Considering some of the outlier ethereum price predictions, the median is a must.
Okay, enough talking, here is a screenshot of the results:
So according to this prediction, an ethereum price between 600 and 800 should be expected for January 2018.
Why is this ethereum price prediction relevant?
Many studies have shown that artificial swarm intelligence can be used to make extremely accurate predictions.
… wait a minute. What is artificial swarm intelligence?
Glad you asked.
Since neither you nor I are bees, we can’t really interact with each other with classic swarm intelligence. But with a small twist, we can simulate it.
A good example of this is the “Jar experiment”.
In that experiment, a medium-sized jar is filled with marbles and sealed.
Next, 100 people are asked how many marbles they think are inside.
Most of the individual’s predictions will be completely wrong. Some will say a value that is greater, and others will say one that is smaller than the actual one. But if we calculate the average, it will come surprisingly close to the real number of marbles.
And well, I did the exact same thing but for the price of Ethereum for the 1st of January of 2018.
I am dying of impatience to see how close we get.
Please share your thoughts in the comment section below!
And as always…